* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 62 63 65 68 76 78 83 84 87 86 85 84 76 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 62 63 65 68 76 78 83 84 87 86 85 84 76 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 59 60 62 67 72 77 81 84 87 88 87 88 85 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 6 7 13 10 14 12 13 10 11 4 8 17 41 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 6 7 6 7 3 0 0 0 -3 -5 -2 -1 -3 3 8 8 SHEAR DIR 239 179 214 290 300 260 255 232 199 210 227 246 277 260 224 223 222 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.6 27.3 27.7 27.6 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 135 138 141 148 150 151 149 153 148 147 145 129 135 135 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 126 128 131 133 140 140 139 136 137 133 130 127 113 121 119 104 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -51.6 -51.5 -50.5 -50.6 -49.8 -50.1 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.3 2.1 1.8 1.9 1.5 1.4 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 9 6 3 0 700-500 MB RH 60 57 53 51 50 46 42 43 40 40 36 38 36 47 56 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 27 27 26 25 25 26 27 31 31 34 34 35 34 35 38 39 850 MB ENV VOR 73 76 71 79 78 72 54 48 46 47 30 10 17 111 144 115 60 200 MB DIV 116 110 80 69 51 23 21 9 42 6 20 5 21 -7 74 68 93 700-850 TADV 2 1 3 1 2 9 15 10 8 10 5 1 0 4 7 38 39 LAND (KM) 1165 1190 1218 1247 1284 1280 1279 1205 1115 1061 1045 1094 1200 1396 1245 923 570 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 18.1 19.5 20.8 22.1 23.3 24.7 26.3 28.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.6 48.3 49.0 49.7 50.4 51.8 53.2 54.5 55.8 57.0 58.3 59.5 60.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 10 12 17 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 27 24 24 34 47 47 42 29 26 28 29 9 17 17 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 6. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -2. -4. 0. -0. 1. -2. -1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 10. 13. 21. 23. 28. 29. 32. 31. 30. 29. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.3 47.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 8.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.87 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.17 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.71 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 3.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.34 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.45 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.57 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 37.2% 25.7% 16.6% 7.1% 24.1% 22.8% 16.4% Logistic: 9.6% 17.8% 10.7% 12.2% 4.6% 11.3% 6.3% 2.8% Bayesian: 10.5% 15.5% 13.6% 2.7% 1.5% 8.9% 4.8% 0.1% Consensus: 9.7% 23.5% 16.7% 10.5% 4.4% 14.7% 11.3% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 60 62 62 63 65 68 76 78 83 84 87 86 85 84 76 18HR AGO 55 54 56 58 58 59 61 64 72 74 79 80 83 82 81 80 72 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 53 54 56 59 67 69 74 75 78 77 76 75 67 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 46 48 51 59 61 66 67 70 69 68 67 59 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT