* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 41 36 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 41 36 29 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 50 48 44 40 32 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 17 16 15 11 11 12 16 20 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 5 1 3 3 3 4 2 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 80 112 148 177 200 211 201 212 203 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.1 24.8 23.9 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.1 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 120 118 114 110 100 92 91 90 91 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 52 50 46 44 40 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 23 22 19 16 13 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 39 39 42 38 34 5 -1 -8 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 20 -10 -22 -30 -2 7 2 -1 -20 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 6 6 10 9 11 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1008 1020 1017 1036 1063 1129 1196 1285 1388 1499 1619 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.5 23.3 23.8 23.9 23.7 23.3 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.5 122.2 123.0 123.8 125.1 126.1 127.1 128.1 129.1 130.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -26. -29. -27. -25. -23. -20. -19. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -21. -29. -38. -48. -55. -62. -63. -64. -63. -62. -63. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.1 120.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 359.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.76 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##