* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/15/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 68 70 72 72 76 81 86 88 90 91 92 91 88 77 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 68 70 72 72 76 81 86 88 90 91 92 91 88 77 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 63 66 68 72 76 80 84 87 89 91 93 93 90 84 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 2 3 7 8 17 13 14 13 11 7 9 9 19 47 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 10 9 9 6 5 2 0 0 -3 -5 -4 0 -5 0 4 -9 SHEAR DIR 2 17 131 237 298 257 265 249 225 186 210 247 253 259 231 215 224 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 28.9 28.7 28.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 135 138 145 150 150 150 154 150 147 147 133 134 136 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 127 126 128 131 138 140 139 137 140 135 130 129 117 119 120 116 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.5 -51.0 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -50.5 -50.5 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 9 6 2 0 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 51 49 49 43 42 40 40 38 37 39 48 61 49 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 26 25 25 25 27 30 32 33 34 35 36 37 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 82 77 73 66 77 82 66 61 50 50 33 33 28 85 102 68 26 200 MB DIV 136 125 86 54 20 19 22 25 18 47 -5 22 25 -1 41 41 43 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 2 5 19 9 9 12 11 0 2 1 12 4 -16 LAND (KM) 1175 1180 1195 1223 1251 1304 1274 1266 1163 1089 1057 1067 1149 1291 1356 1015 693 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.4 14.9 15.5 16.1 17.4 18.8 20.2 21.5 22.8 24.2 25.7 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.4 48.2 48.9 49.6 51.0 52.5 53.8 55.1 56.4 57.7 59.1 60.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 9 9 12 16 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 28 27 25 27 42 48 46 34 25 29 29 15 15 12 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 5. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 21. 26. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 36. 33. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.8 46.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 11.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.94 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.62 3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 4.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.45 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 283.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.60 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.45 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.56 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.1% 46.1% 34.6% 23.2% 7.5% 31.4% 26.5% 19.2% Logistic: 12.0% 18.1% 11.4% 8.3% 2.3% 6.5% 6.0% 1.6% Bayesian: 22.7% 20.0% 30.5% 8.3% 5.7% 23.1% 5.4% 0.1% Consensus: 16.3% 28.1% 25.5% 13.3% 5.2% 20.3% 12.7% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/15/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 4( 6) 4( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 68 70 72 72 76 81 86 88 90 91 92 91 88 77 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 64 66 66 70 75 80 82 84 85 86 85 82 71 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 56 58 58 62 67 72 74 76 77 78 77 74 63 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 49 49 53 58 63 65 67 68 69 68 65 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT