* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 89 89 87 84 75 70 62 53 41 30 28 28 29 30 29 25 V (KT) LAND 85 89 89 87 84 59 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 92 95 93 89 64 40 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 26 26 25 26 27 30 34 48 51 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -3 -6 -3 -2 2 -1 -3 -5 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 264 270 268 257 267 245 247 235 234 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 152 154 162 164 161 158 158 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 127 125 126 134 135 133 129 129 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 6 5 2 4 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 61 65 67 68 70 75 70 64 55 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 25 23 21 20 17 14 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 30 23 38 35 -9 18 24 66 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 33 34 55 74 49 79 53 64 37 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 15 4 7 12 13 11 9 -5 -23 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 160 121 85 76 49 -6 -123 -232 -315 -256 -164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.7 31.6 32.4 32.9 33.2 33.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.5 87.8 88.2 88.3 88.4 88.1 87.2 86.0 84.7 83.5 82.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 42 34 29 29 34 5 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -20. -23. -27. -27. -26. -26. -26. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -23. -27. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 2. -1. -10. -15. -23. -32. -44. -55. -57. -57. -56. -55. -56. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 28.8 87.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 299.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.0% 16.9% 11.8% 9.2% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.6% 28.0% 17.3% 13.3% 5.4% 7.9% 3.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 20.2% 1.5% 0.4% 3.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.3% 15.5% 9.8% 8.7% 3.6% 2.7% 1.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 11( 20) 9( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 89 89 87 84 59 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 85 84 84 82 79 54 34 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 85 82 81 79 76 51 31 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 47 27 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 41 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 89 80 74 71 49 29 21 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 IN 12HR 85 89 89 80 74 70 50 42 39 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38