* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 90 89 89 82 76 65 55 41 29 25 25 27 28 28 24 V (KT) LAND 80 87 90 89 89 72 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 80 90 95 96 93 85 47 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 24 26 26 32 29 35 41 54 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -5 -1 -3 5 -2 -5 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 248 255 263 262 263 253 248 239 239 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.5 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 154 154 154 158 166 164 158 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 128 127 126 131 138 135 129 129 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 5 3 6 2 4 2 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 62 65 66 66 72 68 66 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 24 25 23 21 17 14 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 58 27 19 43 -8 20 0 53 26 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 66 38 38 59 46 69 75 51 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 8 14 7 9 15 18 10 -2 -12 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 180 143 96 67 55 -5 -73 -203 -280 -335 -238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 30.4 31.4 32.3 32.8 33.1 33.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.2 87.7 88.1 88.4 88.7 88.7 88.0 86.9 85.7 84.5 83.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 5 6 6 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 48 40 31 29 40 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -18. -22. -26. -26. -26. -26. -27. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -10. -15. -21. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 10. 9. 9. 2. -4. -15. -25. -39. -51. -55. -55. -53. -52. -52. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.7 87.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 12.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.15 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.91 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.17 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.18 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.38 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.3% 29.0% 26.4% 21.2% 6.6% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 33.2% 47.8% 37.5% 38.2% 16.4% 23.0% 8.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 25.5% 0.8% 0.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.0% 25.9% 21.5% 20.4% 7.7% 10.6% 2.7% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 12( 18) 11( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 87 90 89 89 72 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 80 79 82 81 81 64 37 25 21 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 75 58 31 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 70 53 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 87 78 72 69 55 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 87 90 81 75 71 44 32 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26