* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEDDY AL202020 09/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 51 57 66 72 73 81 86 89 90 91 94 93 97 95 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 51 57 66 72 73 81 86 89 90 91 94 93 97 95 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 48 53 62 67 71 75 79 82 85 85 85 86 87 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 4 4 3 8 10 10 10 11 9 18 13 17 13 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 1 5 6 2 4 1 3 1 0 1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 353 349 8 25 28 124 295 282 272 237 264 279 277 280 282 299 267 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 142 146 149 150 148 145 143 145 150 151 145 147 147 146 147 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 142 145 147 147 143 138 136 135 139 139 131 129 128 127 127 127 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 61 61 59 57 52 51 48 46 44 43 46 48 49 50 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 25 27 28 28 28 24 27 29 30 30 31 34 34 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR 89 63 64 71 76 63 67 80 66 60 32 31 16 11 7 46 69 200 MB DIV 67 78 92 109 111 104 14 28 37 30 -3 17 6 2 3 15 37 700-850 TADV -6 -11 -13 -9 -5 -1 0 3 11 8 7 7 8 5 8 6 11 LAND (KM) 1392 1321 1259 1214 1172 1161 1198 1247 1230 1259 1180 1099 1084 1091 1137 1216 1304 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.7 15.7 16.9 18.2 19.6 21.0 22.4 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.4 44.7 45.7 46.8 48.5 49.9 51.3 52.5 53.6 54.8 56.1 57.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 23 30 37 35 28 26 44 52 48 35 27 24 26 26 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. 31. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 1. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 9. 8. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 31. 37. 38. 46. 51. 54. 55. 56. 59. 58. 62. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 42.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.86 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.45 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.80 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.80 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.60 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.2 95.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 29.5% 18.1% 8.6% 5.5% 17.1% 27.2% 44.4% Logistic: 12.6% 44.2% 31.3% 8.7% 2.8% 11.1% 12.3% 10.4% Bayesian: 4.7% 12.5% 7.4% 0.6% 0.3% 6.7% 40.0% 7.7% Consensus: 7.9% 28.7% 18.9% 6.0% 2.9% 11.6% 26.5% 20.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL202020 TEDDY 09/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 45 51 57 66 72 73 81 86 89 90 91 94 93 97 95 18HR AGO 35 34 40 46 52 61 67 68 76 81 84 85 86 89 88 92 90 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 52 58 59 67 72 75 76 77 80 79 83 81 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 40 46 47 55 60 63 64 65 68 67 71 69 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT