* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 39 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 39 35 29 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 38 37 36 32 27 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 14 16 14 18 16 7 8 10 13 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 0 -3 -1 7 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 33 38 39 47 58 62 93 122 158 190 202 225 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 27.7 27.3 26.7 25.7 25.5 25.3 24.9 23.9 23.6 23.7 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 140 136 130 119 117 115 110 100 96 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 63 61 61 58 58 55 49 45 39 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 20 19 17 14 12 10 9 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 52 52 56 64 45 50 43 39 32 26 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 36 46 41 30 11 -5 -36 -7 -11 -10 -14 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 0 -2 -7 -1 0 4 8 6 7 7 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 882 888 903 933 970 1035 1066 1100 1163 1247 1348 1453 1573 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.5 22.0 22.3 22.4 22.5 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.5 118.2 119.0 119.7 121.0 122.2 123.4 124.6 125.8 127.0 128.2 129.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 11 9 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 386 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 6. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -14. -15. -18. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -11. -17. -22. -27. -30. -36. -39. -38. -36. -35. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.0 116.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.66 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.15 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.39 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.67 -4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.97 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.0 to -2.0 0.96 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 19.3% 17.2% 13.1% 9.0% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 6.5% 5.8% 4.4% 3.0% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##