* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/14/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 60 63 65 60 56 50 41 31 21 18 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 60 63 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 51 53 56 58 62 52 36 29 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 16 16 14 19 25 23 27 34 42 60 64 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 1 0 -1 -4 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 278 274 257 248 269 251 254 244 247 236 237 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.3 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 157 156 159 167 169 168 166 161 157 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 135 132 131 131 138 140 138 137 134 130 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 7 3 5 1 4 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 62 64 64 66 64 69 73 74 69 66 61 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 22 22 21 18 15 14 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 21 24 51 58 23 24 -20 5 6 19 6 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 41 23 39 41 45 71 46 79 40 51 32 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 -2 1 5 9 13 12 11 3 -13 -32 -28 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 188 200 177 113 48 23 -21 -116 -179 -279 -388 -328 -259 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.6 30.4 31.4 32.3 33.2 33.8 34.4 34.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.6 87.4 88.0 88.6 89.3 89.5 89.3 88.5 87.4 85.8 83.6 81.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 5 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 37 59 47 36 31 30 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 17. 18. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -6. -11. -19. -27. -36. -40. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -22. -22. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 10. 6. -0. -9. -19. -29. -32. -35. -37. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 28.1 85.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.44 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.28 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.37 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.12 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.35 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.9% 10.0% 7.4% 4.3% 8.2% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 19.9% 9.9% 7.9% 4.4% 8.0% 8.3% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 11.7% 6.6% 5.1% 2.9% 5.4% 5.7% 1.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/14/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/14/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 57 60 63 53 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 51 54 57 60 50 34 27 25 24 24 24 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 55 45 29 22 20 19 19 19 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 46 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT