* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SALLY AL192020 09/13/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 46 51 59 64 67 63 57 50 43 34 24 19 16 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 46 51 59 64 67 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 45 50 56 60 60 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 15 11 10 13 19 21 19 24 31 42 52 55 67 57 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -4 -3 -4 -1 -3 -4 0 0 1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 309 317 320 304 281 269 235 264 243 264 244 246 242 246 243 244 232 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 164 163 161 159 158 157 163 167 168 166 161 158 155 149 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 144 143 140 135 132 130 133 137 138 137 134 130 129 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 8 6 7 3 5 2 4 1 4 0 2 0 1 700-500 MB RH 60 59 60 63 65 63 67 66 71 73 73 68 62 57 55 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 20 18 15 12 10 8 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 19 0 -8 11 31 12 49 -1 2 -35 -5 -1 26 -14 -41 -45 -49 200 MB DIV 21 22 14 27 57 21 27 27 77 47 63 25 35 17 14 0 -5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 1 3 -2 1 12 11 16 6 4 -8 -15 -21 -25 -22 LAND (KM) 62 114 175 235 233 190 69 20 21 -47 -116 -212 -342 -354 -266 -235 -130 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.8 29.4 30.1 30.8 31.7 32.6 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.3 84.3 85.1 86.0 87.4 88.5 89.0 89.2 89.1 88.5 87.5 86.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 8 6 4 4 3 4 6 6 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 81 58 35 33 33 59 44 30 38 26 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. -11. -17. -26. -35. -42. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. -5. -10. -13. -16. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 24. 29. 32. 28. 22. 15. 8. -1. -11. -16. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.0 82.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.33 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.17 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.84 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.6% 9.7% 6.8% 3.5% 8.3% 10.9% 13.5% Logistic: 4.2% 23.9% 12.1% 6.8% 3.0% 12.4% 24.6% 32.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 13.7% 7.4% 4.6% 2.2% 6.9% 11.9% 15.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 SALLY 09/13/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 SALLY 09/13/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 46 51 59 64 67 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 43 48 56 61 64 42 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 38 43 51 56 59 37 25 21 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 34 42 47 50 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT