* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192020 09/12/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 47 55 65 68 69 62 56 50 43 35 32 27 V (KT) LAND 30 35 37 39 42 51 58 68 72 68 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 35 37 39 44 50 55 58 48 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 17 13 12 17 19 23 23 23 34 47 58 46 43 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -2 -4 -3 -4 -2 0 2 0 -5 -6 4 0 0 SHEAR DIR 332 315 305 317 315 274 272 236 262 255 264 243 251 252 262 284 298 SST (C) 29.8 30.2 30.3 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.5 30.0 30.6 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.4 30.0 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 171 171 167 163 161 158 156 157 167 168 168 168 169 169 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 154 155 147 142 138 133 130 130 137 145 146 147 149 141 134 133 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 9 6 7 3 5 3 6 3 7 1 6 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 58 58 65 62 65 63 67 68 60 55 51 46 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 13 14 17 17 20 21 21 17 13 11 10 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 24 0 -7 28 10 46 -2 -2 -28 -7 -18 -18 -83 -101 -96 200 MB DIV -5 12 28 25 15 60 13 43 32 51 33 48 14 21 -32 -19 -28 700-850 TADV -9 -1 0 -1 0 1 -1 3 12 10 14 0 -1 -4 -6 -3 -10 LAND (KM) -12 28 86 135 192 202 182 95 44 3 -17 -71 -140 -234 -333 -442 -552 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 28.0 28.7 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.5 31.0 31.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.0 82.9 83.8 84.6 86.0 87.1 88.1 88.9 89.6 90.1 90.4 90.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 65 83 42 33 31 48 38 30 33 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 37. 38. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. -15. -24. -31. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 8. 8. 2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 25. 35. 38. 39. 32. 26. 20. 13. 5. 2. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 81.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.52 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.19 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.91 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.6% 9.1% 6.3% 3.2% 7.9% 9.8% 12.7% Logistic: 3.1% 11.8% 5.9% 2.4% 0.9% 8.2% 26.6% 31.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 9.0% 5.1% 2.9% 1.4% 5.4% 12.1% 14.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 37 39 42 51 58 68 72 68 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 45 52 62 66 62 36 26 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 40 47 57 61 57 31 21 17 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 39 49 53 49 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT