* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN AL192020 09/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 39 46 54 62 67 71 67 63 57 52 44 42 38 V (KT) LAND 30 27 30 33 35 42 50 58 63 66 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 27 27 32 33 37 42 47 52 55 46 34 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 12 14 8 15 15 23 18 27 29 43 49 58 37 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -4 -4 -5 -4 -7 -3 -2 1 -5 -1 -5 -6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 321 324 314 304 317 295 273 247 256 244 257 246 247 252 257 269 308 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.6 30.3 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.8 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 171 171 169 159 158 156 154 159 169 169 169 169 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 151 157 148 137 133 130 128 131 142 151 151 150 150 146 140 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 9 9 7 8 4 6 4 6 4 7 3 7 3 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 58 56 62 62 63 60 64 65 65 56 56 53 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 12 12 13 14 16 14 12 9 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 14 15 21 18 -5 15 -8 42 1 6 -40 -20 -38 -38 -100 -87 -142 200 MB DIV 2 0 13 26 14 27 42 24 30 26 37 15 8 17 0 -12 -26 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -2 0 -2 0 -1 3 7 4 12 5 0 -1 -3 -1 -9 LAND (KM) 10 -25 9 55 112 178 147 113 71 40 -8 -54 -161 -272 -365 -446 -525 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.1 28.1 28.8 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.8 31.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.2 81.1 81.9 82.8 83.7 85.2 86.4 87.3 88.1 89.0 89.8 90.5 91.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 8 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 52 45 62 92 45 28 33 36 30 32 21 6 6 6 6 6 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 30. 33. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -27. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 1. -2. -7. -9. -11. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 16. 24. 32. 37. 41. 37. 33. 27. 22. 14. 12. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.6 80.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.34 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.77 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.92 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.1% 10.0% 7.1% 4.0% 8.5% 10.7% 13.7% Logistic: 7.6% 36.1% 25.5% 18.7% 10.0% 34.5% 49.4% 49.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 4.4% 17.9% 12.1% 8.6% 4.7% 14.4% 20.2% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL192020 NINETEEN 09/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 30 33 35 42 50 58 63 66 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 44 52 60 65 68 55 38 32 30 29 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 38 46 54 59 62 49 32 26 24 23 23 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 29 37 45 50 53 40 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT