* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/12/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 41 40 42 42 42 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 41 40 42 42 42 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 41 42 42 39 37 36 37 39 41 44 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 8 7 11 20 24 31 22 16 9 13 12 18 17 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 -1 -1 0 6 1 1 1 0 -1 1 -1 0 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 185 302 319 323 295 296 288 303 310 346 4 337 321 291 266 263 245 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.6 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 121 126 129 129 131 130 131 135 135 137 138 139 143 146 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 108 111 115 117 113 112 109 111 115 118 119 120 120 124 127 128 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 49 46 47 49 51 54 53 48 43 39 39 40 42 46 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 8 7 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 29 2 -8 -2 -54 -92 -87 -103 -115 -108 -76 -65 -28 11 14 15 200 MB DIV 1 1 4 7 -11 2 12 -24 -37 -24 -22 -3 -10 2 26 -1 -3 700-850 TADV 4 -1 -1 0 4 2 4 0 -5 -10 -2 -6 -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 2128 2134 2149 2187 2160 2091 2084 2052 1984 1884 1743 1582 1441 1336 1237 1134 1037 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.3 24.1 25.6 26.6 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.1 25.4 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.9 44.0 44.9 45.8 47.0 47.5 48.0 48.7 49.7 51.0 52.4 53.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 7 4 2 4 5 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 5 16 19 15 15 15 18 33 30 22 33 31 28 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.1 41.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.79 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.70 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.48 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.14 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 15.1% 10.5% 7.9% 4.7% 8.5% 8.6% 5.3% Logistic: 7.9% 31.0% 26.7% 10.0% 4.0% 7.5% 3.2% 3.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 15.7% 12.5% 6.0% 2.9% 5.3% 3.9% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/12/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/12/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 40 42 43 41 40 42 42 42 43 45 47 48 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 38 40 41 39 38 40 40 40 41 43 45 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 34 36 37 35 34 36 36 36 37 39 41 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 29 30 28 27 29 29 29 30 32 34 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT