* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 32 30 28 29 28 29 30 32 36 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 32 30 28 29 28 29 30 32 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 33 30 28 26 26 26 28 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 3 8 10 14 26 31 32 26 22 14 15 15 15 20 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 5 2 5 5 1 2 2 1 -1 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 80 175 240 298 300 291 302 297 305 320 349 4 337 315 312 300 301 SST (C) 26.2 26.5 26.1 26.2 26.4 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 119 115 116 118 128 129 130 129 130 131 132 134 137 142 146 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 111 107 107 108 115 113 110 107 109 112 115 116 119 122 124 124 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 51 48 51 55 59 54 47 43 37 34 33 33 35 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 49 44 22 -4 -18 -79 -101 -99 -94 -97 -91 -105 -87 -89 -68 -41 200 MB DIV -18 -3 -6 -13 -8 -16 -9 -11 -23 -51 -41 -26 0 14 1 22 8 700-850 TADV 0 3 7 1 0 8 8 10 5 -4 -13 -8 -9 -8 -6 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 2196 2167 2146 2153 2169 2219 2184 2208 2216 2179 2098 1984 1838 1692 1597 1555 1513 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.1 21.8 22.5 24.1 25.8 26.9 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.4 40.5 41.6 42.6 43.6 45.2 46.1 46.3 46.4 46.7 47.4 48.5 50.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 11 10 7 4 1 3 4 6 7 7 6 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 0 1 2 17 15 18 18 18 15 17 33 25 32 34 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -21. -22. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.0 39.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.88 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.59 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.0% 9.8% 7.4% 0.0% 8.6% 8.9% 5.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.2% 6.6% 1.3% 0.4% 1.5% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.8% 5.5% 2.9% 0.1% 3.4% 3.3% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 32 30 28 29 28 29 30 32 36 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 32 30 28 29 28 29 30 32 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 32 33 33 32 29 27 25 26 25 26 27 29 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 27 26 23 21 19 20 19 20 21 23 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT