* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 52 53 58 67 76 82 91 95 98 93 87 81 73 65 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 52 53 58 67 76 82 91 95 98 93 87 81 73 65 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 54 54 56 62 70 80 88 91 88 82 74 67 62 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 36 33 30 30 23 13 3 2 4 1 10 25 28 28 20 24 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 4 0 4 -2 -2 -1 2 2 8 2 6 4 6 5 SHEAR DIR 213 212 206 208 198 194 197 276 13 324 193 217 203 214 206 192 210 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.5 28.7 29.2 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.1 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 144 147 156 161 150 143 137 136 136 131 129 132 126 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 125 130 132 140 142 129 120 114 114 114 111 108 108 103 69 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -50.7 -50.1 -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -51.2 -51.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 8 5 4 4 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 51 50 49 46 45 40 43 42 48 43 41 42 41 37 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 24 24 27 30 32 33 36 37 40 40 41 41 40 39 850 MB ENV VOR 108 93 94 80 73 51 42 14 9 12 42 38 47 29 -5 -8 29 200 MB DIV 39 16 13 4 6 16 16 -1 24 40 81 94 114 70 55 80 66 700-850 TADV 12 15 13 12 13 13 6 0 1 0 -1 0 -2 14 9 2 -31 LAND (KM) 1553 1487 1429 1387 1356 1327 1307 1350 1284 1164 1087 1019 1011 971 811 600 433 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.9 24.5 25.2 25.9 27.4 28.7 30.0 31.3 32.7 34.0 35.3 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.7 53.6 54.5 55.4 57.3 59.6 61.7 62.9 63.2 62.3 60.2 57.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 11 11 12 11 10 7 7 9 11 12 11 11 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 29 37 31 29 30 23 22 24 21 12 15 13 27 20 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -4. -3. -1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 6. 8. 9. 13. 14. 18. 16. 16. 15. 12. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -2. 3. 12. 21. 27. 36. 40. 43. 38. 32. 26. 18. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.2 51.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.02 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 9.2% Logistic: 0.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.8% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 2.4% 3.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 52 53 58 67 76 82 91 95 98 93 87 81 73 65 18HR AGO 55 54 54 52 53 58 67 76 82 91 95 98 93 87 81 73 65 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 50 55 64 73 79 88 92 95 90 84 78 70 62 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 51 60 69 75 84 88 91 86 80 74 66 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT