* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 54 53 55 61 69 80 84 91 93 90 88 82 76 67 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 54 53 55 61 69 80 84 91 93 90 88 82 76 67 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 57 57 57 57 62 70 81 89 93 93 88 82 76 71 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 39 34 32 30 28 16 8 2 5 1 8 18 29 28 24 32 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -4 0 0 6 -1 1 0 2 5 SHEAR DIR 221 216 211 205 209 196 230 302 315 306 241 206 227 208 197 191 211 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 29.0 29.3 29.3 28.7 28.1 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 140 144 152 157 157 147 137 138 138 134 133 131 124 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 122 126 129 136 140 137 126 115 114 114 113 112 109 102 89 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -51.5 -51.1 -50.0 -50.2 -49.7 -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -50.3 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 2.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.7 2.1 2.1 1.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 6 5 6 6 4 1 700-500 MB RH 52 52 51 51 51 50 48 44 41 42 47 50 48 48 46 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 24 23 25 28 30 34 35 38 40 41 43 43 44 42 850 MB ENV VOR 107 102 95 94 79 66 53 40 23 6 34 64 51 68 35 37 79 200 MB DIV 13 32 22 -4 0 21 17 8 5 29 48 91 102 113 94 101 45 700-850 TADV 11 10 14 13 13 10 9 4 0 3 1 0 4 5 14 2 7 LAND (KM) 1586 1516 1452 1402 1361 1320 1298 1297 1347 1170 1100 1037 979 962 864 727 511 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.6 28.0 29.2 30.4 31.7 33.0 34.2 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.1 53.0 53.9 54.8 56.5 58.6 60.9 62.7 64.0 64.0 62.9 61.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 11 12 11 9 7 6 9 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 30 35 26 31 26 26 18 26 23 13 18 16 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 6. 12. 12. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. 17. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 6. 14. 25. 29. 36. 38. 35. 33. 27. 21. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.7 51.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.40 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 54 53 55 61 69 80 84 91 93 90 88 82 76 67 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 52 54 60 68 79 83 90 92 89 87 81 75 66 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 50 52 58 66 77 81 88 90 87 85 79 73 64 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 46 52 60 71 75 82 84 81 79 73 67 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT