* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 54 54 54 50 50 48 45 41 40 41 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 54 54 54 50 50 48 45 41 40 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 40 44 49 52 54 53 51 49 45 42 40 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 15 13 4 4 12 18 28 28 32 18 19 18 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -6 -8 -8 -2 1 6 5 7 6 3 7 3 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 84 90 94 104 117 149 298 319 301 313 308 312 323 350 43 33 46 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.2 26.3 27.7 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 118 120 122 123 123 122 116 117 133 135 132 134 138 144 147 151 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 112 113 114 114 113 107 107 120 118 113 113 116 121 123 126 125 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 67 65 60 56 56 60 62 63 61 56 52 52 49 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 18 18 17 17 15 15 14 15 14 13 11 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 106 96 87 70 64 70 60 6 -15 -44 -61 -71 -91 -112 -128 -136 -122 200 MB DIV 17 14 10 14 20 -21 0 -19 6 -2 0 -4 -14 -39 -17 -9 -15 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 0 4 5 5 -1 16 29 22 18 1 -3 -5 -7 -5 LAND (KM) 1741 1849 1957 2049 2142 2185 2146 2184 2279 2222 2194 2168 2097 2046 1990 1908 1835 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.8 20.9 22.4 24.1 25.8 27.0 27.8 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.5 34.5 35.5 36.4 37.4 39.3 41.3 43.1 44.6 45.7 46.5 47.0 47.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 8 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 4 6 7 8 5 0 1 16 14 11 12 15 22 29 32 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 17. 19. 19. 19. 15. 15. 13. 10. 6. 5. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.9 33.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.54 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.23 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.82 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.49 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.0% 12.1% 8.5% 5.9% 2.7% 7.4% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.6% 20.3% 10.6% 3.2% 2.5% 12.1% 15.4% 7.2% Bayesian: 1.3% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% 0.4% Consensus: 4.0% 11.7% 6.5% 3.0% 1.7% 6.7% 8.7% 2.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 54 54 54 50 50 48 45 41 40 41 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 40 45 50 52 52 52 48 48 46 43 39 38 39 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 45 47 47 47 43 43 41 38 34 33 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 37 39 39 39 35 35 33 30 26 25 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT