* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 48 53 57 55 53 50 51 52 47 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 48 53 57 55 53 50 51 52 47 43 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 56 57 56 54 52 49 46 43 39 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 8 10 10 10 7 7 19 28 24 31 28 41 42 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 2 0 -1 -1 -4 5 7 6 10 5 0 -5 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 77 82 59 50 67 63 120 250 272 292 289 299 295 304 304 316 338 SST (C) 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.2 26.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 126 126 123 122 122 120 116 119 131 132 133 133 132 129 128 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 121 121 118 116 115 112 107 109 117 115 113 112 109 105 104 102 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -54.4 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 66 70 68 68 65 69 68 65 59 54 47 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 19 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 14 16 15 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 114 110 113 122 123 96 79 61 57 21 -34 -64 -63 -47 -17 -6 -29 200 MB DIV 0 6 7 4 25 -1 -6 -18 23 16 42 3 2 -21 -43 -42 -71 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 1 12 21 21 24 22 2 -5 -11 -20 -6 LAND (KM) 1059 1200 1341 1484 1628 1895 2105 2280 2413 2542 2356 2201 2099 2073 2081 2110 2153 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.2 17.6 18.0 18.9 20.0 21.4 23.3 25.5 27.4 28.9 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.2 28.5 29.8 31.1 32.4 35.0 37.2 39.0 40.4 41.6 42.1 42.1 41.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 11 9 7 5 4 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 12 10 4 6 7 1 2 23 15 12 15 13 10 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. -1. -4. -9. -14. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -12. -13. -14. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 13. 18. 22. 20. 18. 15. 16. 17. 12. 8. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 27.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.78 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.48 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.5% 11.2% 8.4% 5.2% 9.3% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 19.0% 13.0% 7.0% 4.0% 13.5% 13.4% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.2% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% Consensus: 4.0% 13.6% 8.4% 5.2% 3.1% 7.8% 8.2% 3.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 44 48 53 57 55 53 50 51 52 47 43 44 45 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 45 50 54 52 50 47 48 49 44 40 41 42 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 39 44 48 46 44 41 42 43 38 34 35 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 36 40 38 36 33 34 35 30 26 27 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT