* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 55 54 47 41 36 35 32 32 32 35 34 35 38 37 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 55 54 47 41 36 35 32 32 32 35 34 35 38 37 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 59 59 58 53 46 42 38 35 33 33 34 35 36 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 22 20 23 33 34 31 26 27 26 25 24 23 25 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 0 1 6 1 0 4 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 219 226 233 229 218 221 221 223 214 217 201 212 186 195 174 200 202 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.8 28.1 28.4 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.8 29.4 29.0 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 124 124 125 126 133 137 142 153 160 160 165 157 150 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 114 114 114 114 114 120 124 128 138 143 140 142 134 127 123 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 60 58 53 51 55 54 51 49 45 40 37 37 38 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 22 22 19 18 16 16 15 14 13 13 10 9 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 116 119 110 116 111 95 98 92 104 99 88 68 57 41 15 6 13 200 MB DIV 84 81 57 50 75 0 -2 8 37 0 12 14 35 1 17 2 -12 700-850 TADV 4 6 8 10 8 1 2 -2 6 3 7 10 12 9 8 4 0 LAND (KM) 1764 1763 1766 1754 1742 1655 1542 1432 1306 1203 1124 1097 1103 1138 1187 1251 1247 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.6 20.9 21.6 22.6 23.8 25.2 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.7 45.4 46.3 47.2 49.1 50.8 52.3 53.7 55.1 56.6 58.1 59.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 6 7 14 36 37 33 35 33 40 46 31 23 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -18. -17. -17. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -14. -17. -20. -22. -22. -25. -26. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -8. -14. -19. -20. -23. -23. -23. -20. -21. -20. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.5 44.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.36 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 249.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.49 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 14.1% 9.6% 7.1% 3.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 4.3% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 1.8% 1.4% 1.6% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.3% 3.7% 2.7% 1.4% 3.0% 0.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 55 54 47 41 36 35 32 32 32 35 34 35 38 37 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 45 39 34 33 30 30 30 33 32 33 36 35 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 42 36 31 30 27 27 27 30 29 30 33 32 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 37 31 26 25 22 22 22 25 24 25 28 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT