* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 49 55 61 62 62 60 61 62 59 52 46 46 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 49 55 61 62 62 60 61 62 59 52 46 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 42 48 53 59 61 60 59 58 58 56 50 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 4 8 11 12 7 5 13 15 18 24 30 42 50 55 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 1 -1 -1 -4 2 5 3 6 1 0 -5 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 1 59 77 59 53 86 109 199 284 278 281 271 286 272 273 274 293 SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.0 26.9 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.4 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 128 128 125 122 123 120 114 123 130 134 133 134 133 128 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 123 123 120 116 115 111 105 112 116 117 114 113 112 108 106 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 68 68 69 69 67 64 64 64 61 56 54 52 40 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 18 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 14 16 16 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 120 117 116 114 127 100 80 79 77 69 35 21 -6 -14 -22 -4 -32 200 MB DIV 6 -5 10 21 16 36 9 8 10 37 30 31 13 -9 -13 -29 -43 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -1 0 2 2 1 6 13 13 7 20 15 -12 -12 -23 -20 LAND (KM) 906 1046 1186 1334 1480 1758 2003 2216 2308 2379 2511 2328 2162 2085 2067 2120 2183 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.4 27.4 29.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.8 31.1 33.6 36.1 38.3 40.0 41.4 42.4 42.9 42.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 11 12 12 4 7 7 0 5 20 16 12 15 11 6 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. -3. -10. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -13. -11. -10. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 26. 27. 27. 25. 26. 27. 24. 17. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 25.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.86 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.60 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.2% 10.4% 7.4% 4.2% 8.7% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 13.7% 8.1% 3.1% 1.6% 5.9% 11.7% 9.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2.3% 1.2% Consensus: 3.4% 11.2% 6.5% 3.6% 2.0% 5.0% 8.4% 3.7% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 44 49 55 61 62 62 60 61 62 59 52 46 46 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 41 46 52 58 59 59 57 58 59 56 49 43 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 41 47 53 54 54 52 53 54 51 44 38 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 39 45 46 46 44 45 46 43 36 30 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT