* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAULETTE AL172020 09/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 51 53 51 46 42 37 33 31 32 34 36 39 42 42 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 51 53 51 46 42 37 33 31 32 34 36 39 42 42 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 53 53 51 47 42 37 34 31 30 31 32 34 36 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 22 20 23 32 34 33 27 28 24 21 21 15 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 -3 -1 4 2 1 2 2 3 0 2 0 0 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 235 229 224 228 233 224 224 225 235 225 220 187 194 166 171 145 163 SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.9 28.1 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 124 124 123 124 125 126 135 137 148 153 162 160 164 153 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 112 113 114 113 114 114 115 122 124 134 137 143 140 143 133 130 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 62 65 63 62 59 56 55 59 58 55 51 45 42 41 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 20 22 20 18 16 14 13 12 13 13 13 12 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 103 108 112 116 104 105 87 93 90 92 75 68 41 28 14 -1 -7 200 MB DIV 44 66 76 62 43 58 6 1 -2 29 -8 19 7 14 14 6 3 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 4 6 10 0 3 -1 1 2 5 6 7 10 7 6 LAND (KM) 1798 1804 1812 1802 1796 1780 1700 1580 1424 1281 1168 1112 1091 1120 1160 1238 1168 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.5 22.1 23.1 24.3 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.1 43.5 44.3 45.0 46.8 48.8 50.7 52.5 54.1 55.7 57.1 58.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 7 8 9 7 7 14 40 33 34 32 36 41 41 24 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 6. 8. 6. 1. -3. -8. -12. -14. -13. -11. -9. -6. -3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 17.9 42.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 25.9 to 2.2 0.34 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.52 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.72 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.43 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 95.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 15.5% 10.4% 7.6% 4.0% 8.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 4.1% 14.1% 6.1% 2.8% 1.4% 6.2% 3.0% 4.6% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 10.5% 5.7% 3.6% 1.9% 4.8% 3.5% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172020 PAULETTE 09/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 51 53 51 46 42 37 33 31 32 34 36 39 42 42 18HR AGO 45 44 47 47 49 47 42 38 33 29 27 28 30 32 35 38 38 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 43 41 36 32 27 23 21 22 24 26 29 32 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 35 30 26 21 17 15 16 18 20 23 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT