* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 43 43 46 51 57 62 68 72 79 85 89 89 90 94 V (KT) LAND 45 37 33 30 34 36 42 47 53 58 62 70 75 79 79 81 84 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 32 30 33 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 9 7 13 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 51 72 44 34 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.9 29.7 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 164 157 163 168 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 161 153 160 168 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 68 70 75 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 6 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 62 70 68 67 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 13 39 48 32 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 8 10 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -93 -200 -135 -30 55 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.3 16.0 15.8 15.5 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.7 90.9 92.0 93.1 94.3 96.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 10 14 21 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 31. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -2. -2. 1. 6. 12. 17. 23. 27. 34. 40. 44. 44. 45. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.5 89.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.47 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 25.9 to 2.2 0.59 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.31 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.74 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.90 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.5% 9.9% 6.6% 4.1% 8.7% 10.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 14.7% 7.7% 2.3% 1.8% 3.2% 8.7% 16.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 20.3% Consensus: 2.4% 10.6% 5.9% 3.0% 2.0% 4.1% 6.6% 12.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 33 30 34 36 42 47 53 58 62 70 75 79 79 81 84 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 41 43 49 54 60 65 69 77 82 86 86 88 91 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 42 44 50 55 61 66 70 78 83 87 87 89 92 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 41 47 52 58 63 67 75 80 84 84 86 89 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT