* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 68 69 69 70 69 71 75 80 83 86 91 95 99 100 102 104 V (KT) LAND 65 47 38 33 30 31 34 38 42 46 48 53 58 62 62 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 65 49 39 33 30 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 14 8 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 31 60 76 40 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.8 30.1 29.4 29.4 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 159 159 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 172 169 155 156 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 68 70 73 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 8 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 64 54 65 68 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 12 11 40 45 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 4 8 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -90 -190 -170 -69 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.5 90.7 91.8 93.0 95.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 55 19 12 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 26. 30. 34. 35. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.8 88.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.56 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.24 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.36 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.77 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.67 2.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.71 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.1% 39.6% 28.3% 19.3% 7.2% 15.7% 17.7% 18.6% Logistic: 20.3% 59.6% 46.4% 25.3% 20.8% 31.4% 27.9% 46.7% Bayesian: 7.7% 41.9% 13.0% 1.2% 0.7% 19.8% 17.4% 74.5% Consensus: 15.7% 47.0% 29.2% 15.3% 9.5% 22.3% 21.0% 46.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 47 38 33 30 31 34 38 42 46 48 53 58 62 62 65 66 18HR AGO 65 64 55 50 47 48 51 55 59 63 65 70 75 79 79 82 83 12HR AGO 65 62 61 56 53 54 57 61 65 69 71 76 81 85 85 88 89 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 53 56 60 64 68 70 75 80 84 84 87 88 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT