* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NANA AL162020 09/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 59 61 68 69 74 78 81 87 91 95 96 99 101 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 59 41 31 32 37 41 44 49 54 58 59 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 58 60 43 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 18 17 12 16 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 2 0 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 9 10 11 358 355 35 30 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.9 30.8 29.4 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 162 161 168 172 159 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 160 158 164 172 154 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 11 11 9 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 51 53 60 64 68 72 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 8 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 39 61 60 54 57 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 14 41 49 33 25 37 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 4 0 2 -3 -1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 262 156 122 125 78 -108 -159 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.3 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.9 83.5 85.0 86.3 87.5 89.8 92.0 94.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 71 67 66 57 62 43 13 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 25. 29. 32. 32. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -2. -3. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 18. 19. 24. 28. 31. 37. 41. 45. 46. 49. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.0 81.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 25.9 to 2.2 0.47 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.44 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.33 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.70 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.57 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.87 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.31 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 25.4% 13.1% 8.9% 5.8% 13.1% 24.5% 30.2% Logistic: 9.8% 20.6% 15.0% 8.5% 4.1% 13.2% 22.9% 30.9% Bayesian: 2.5% 8.5% 8.3% 0.2% 0.3% 9.4% 50.0% 68.2% Consensus: 6.6% 18.2% 12.1% 5.9% 3.4% 11.9% 32.5% 43.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162020 NANA 09/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162020 NANA 09/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 56 59 41 31 32 37 41 44 49 54 58 59 62 63 18HR AGO 50 49 51 53 56 38 28 29 34 38 41 46 51 55 56 59 60 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 33 23 24 29 33 36 41 46 50 51 54 55 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT