* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 27 27 28 32 31 29 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 12 16 18 30 40 63 62 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 0 6 8 0 0 5 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 300 287 270 274 254 245 228 222 244 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 28.5 23.0 18.4 18.7 16.2 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 164 165 168 149 98 80 79 73 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 140 143 149 136 91 75 73 69 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.9 3.0 2.0 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 11 10 5 8 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 59 63 65 59 54 52 55 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 14 13 12 8 8 8 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -32 12 25 60 85 167 161 143 133 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 34 48 70 52 17 49 47 59 35 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 11 6 45 27 41 -114 -38 -37 -86 -131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -582 -638 -687 -726 -697 -308 88 112 127 34 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 36.1 36.8 37.3 37.7 38.5 40.2 42.8 45.1 47.1 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.0 90.8 89.5 87.3 85.2 79.1 71.8 64.5 58.9 54.5 50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 15 18 21 27 30 27 21 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 825 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 22. 21. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. -2. -13. -25. -40. -49. -58. -70. -78. -81. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -7. -10. -11. -10. -6. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -16. -11. -15. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -7. -9. -20. -37. -42. -48. -58. -67. -74. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.4 92.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.20 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.41 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.72 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.65 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 126.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.88 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.4 95.0 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 7.7% 5.2% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.7% 1.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/28/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT