* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 38 38 36 33 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 39 38 38 36 33 28 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 41 40 39 38 36 32 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 27 26 21 24 22 24 18 18 19 16 17 12 13 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 3 3 7 1 -1 0 2 4 4 4 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 74 81 68 64 69 74 80 109 126 122 112 107 91 86 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.1 26.7 26.3 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.4 26.9 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 152 150 149 148 143 129 124 121 120 121 124 129 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 66 66 68 71 76 74 72 64 61 56 55 54 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 15 15 18 18 16 13 12 11 10 8 7 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 77 89 80 73 54 37 23 15 37 52 44 43 52 58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 78 66 50 43 71 32 21 32 23 22 3 -6 -16 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -3 0 -2 0 1 -9 -8 0 2 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 916 870 823 780 738 630 531 455 426 436 470 521 568 633 684 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.9 19.9 21.1 21.8 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.9 115.7 115.4 115.2 114.9 114.3 114.0 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.1 116.7 117.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 19 17 14 13 12 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 18. 18. 17. 17. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -15. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -26. -23. -21. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.8 115.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 30.0 to 135.0 0.78 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 34.4 to 2.3 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.0 to -2.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##