* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 74 72 70 66 60 54 56 41 31 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 60 45 37 33 29 28 29 33 19 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 59 44 36 32 28 28 29 36 33 28 27 26 27 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 17 19 15 14 21 40 61 86 82 63 50 45 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -2 -3 1 8 1 3 9 -9 -7 0 1 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 264 254 273 295 276 250 241 237 217 219 220 214 209 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 31.4 31.2 31.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 28.0 25.9 19.3 19.0 14.7 13.1 12.5 12.4 13.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 172 172 167 163 165 142 119 84 82 73 70 70 70 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 172 164 141 138 144 129 110 79 77 69 67 67 67 68 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.5 -49.9 -50.3 -51.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -49.9 -49.3 -48.0 -48.3 -47.7 -48.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.5 3.5 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 12 7 5 10 4 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 58 60 65 62 46 45 48 53 47 52 50 50 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 24 22 19 17 13 11 11 19 16 15 16 16 15 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -68 -45 -42 -75 -53 42 84 126 178 174 194 169 168 168 128 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 32 28 39 31 66 21 26 60 56 44 24 24 10 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 9 12 24 13 48 9 -5 50 -41 -74 -26 -38 -28 -33 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -157 -297 -435 -498 -585 -697 -524 -37 198 15 -16 415 863 1345 1176 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.5 33.7 34.7 35.6 37.0 38.0 39.2 42.0 45.8 49.2 51.7 53.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.0 92.7 91.8 91.0 87.6 82.1 75.2 67.6 60.0 53.9 49.0 42.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 13 19 25 29 33 30 23 20 21 22 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 14 CX,CY: -1/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 747 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -7. -13. -19. -25. -31. -37. -42. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -15. -22. -29. -35. -40. -44. -46. -48. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -9. -11. -10. -8. -4. -4. -5. -3. -1. 3. 5. 3. 1. -3. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -22. -14. -20. -22. -22. -22. -23. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -11. -13. -15. -19. -25. -31. -29. -44. -54. -62. -70. -80. -89. -94.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 31.2 93.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.28 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.6 to -2.7 0.39 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 416.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 1.6% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/27/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 60 45 37 33 29 28 29 33 19 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 69 61 57 53 52 53 57 43 46 41 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 85 82 81 73 69 65 64 65 69 55 58 53 36 36 36 36 36 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 71 67 66 67 71 57 60 55 38 38 38 38 38 NOW 85 76 70 67 66 62 61 62 66 52 55 50 33 33 33 33 33 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT