* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 30 29 30 28 28 26 24 24 25 25 26 27 30 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 30 29 30 28 28 26 24 24 25 25 26 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 34 32 30 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 29 26 20 22 25 16 12 16 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 4 9 6 5 -1 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 73 73 76 74 75 82 86 90 104 113 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.0 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.6 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 159 158 155 144 128 127 129 128 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -50.2 -50.8 -50.2 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 9 6 8 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 76 77 75 72 76 76 77 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 23 32 53 64 66 77 62 38 32 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 72 66 77 72 67 64 27 28 57 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -12 -9 0 2 -15 -9 -2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 173 134 105 105 110 264 102 169 272 340 437 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.5 19.0 19.6 20.1 21.2 22.0 22.4 22.5 22.5 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 105.8 105.9 105.9 106.3 106.7 108.1 109.8 111.6 113.2 114.5 115.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 26 31 34 32 22 1 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. -17. -18. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.0 105.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.87 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##