* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 36 33 33 32 32 29 26 24 21 23 24 25 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 36 33 33 32 32 29 26 24 21 23 24 25 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 35 32 29 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 31 28 30 31 29 27 29 26 23 22 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 1 3 7 0 1 0 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 82 83 74 70 66 69 72 81 92 105 117 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.3 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 152 153 154 153 150 150 149 145 136 132 129 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 63 63 67 70 75 75 77 76 73 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 14 15 14 16 15 15 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 68 76 74 71 79 76 53 43 28 28 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 59 52 49 54 51 59 71 40 24 12 30 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -1 -4 -4 -5 -10 -6 -8 -1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1113 1070 1027 981 935 827 705 587 507 470 445 459 487 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.2 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.4 21.9 22.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.7 116.4 116.1 115.8 115.1 114.3 113.7 113.6 113.9 114.6 115.5 116.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 4 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 19 22 24 23 17 13 12 9 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -18. -22. -25. -26. -26. -27. -27. -30. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 116.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.29 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##