* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 120 116 110 97 87 81 71 59 46 36 36 34 30 22 15 V (KT) LAND 120 124 120 79 56 36 30 28 28 29 16 N/A 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 120 126 126 85 59 36 30 28 28 32 33 32 32 31 30 31 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 18 26 26 21 19 12 19 33 39 54 84 79 63 50 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 0 3 -2 4 6 5 -1 6 -10 -4 2 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 275 258 269 269 265 278 281 261 254 239 217 213 226 225 214 205 124 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.5 31.6 31.6 31.0 29.8 29.9 28.5 24.7 19.1 18.7 14.8 13.0 12.7 11.9 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 172 172 172 172 168 171 149 109 83 81 72 69 68 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 160 172 172 163 143 152 136 100 78 76 69 66 65 64 64 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.5 -49.9 -50.7 -51.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.7 -50.5 -49.9 -49.3 -48.6 -49.1 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 1.3 1.1 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 8 11 7 11 5 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 59 55 61 63 51 41 43 51 51 53 54 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 25 26 23 17 14 13 11 8 7 8 13 15 14 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -23 -57 -59 -31 -79 13 31 75 164 159 165 177 149 137 137 131 200 MB DIV 50 35 52 32 33 25 31 50 20 21 56 67 40 -3 -13 -29 -31 700-850 TADV 0 12 29 15 13 22 -4 37 38 -66 -15 -210 -66 -36 -26 -13 1 LAND (KM) 250 137 16 -123 -262 -522 -648 -730 -410 59 192 70 34 424 790 1085 1377 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 28.5 29.6 30.9 32.1 34.5 36.2 37.2 38.0 39.3 41.9 45.7 48.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.5 93.1 93.6 93.7 93.8 92.9 90.6 86.5 80.5 73.7 66.4 59.1 53.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 13 12 12 14 21 26 29 31 29 23 18 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 39 40 40 7 7 6 5 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 2. 4. 5. 2. -6. -15. -22. -31. -40. -48. -57. -66. -72. -78. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -12. -15. -17. -15. -11. -10. -9. -9. -14. -18. -19. -20. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -9. -15. -20. -24. -30. -33. -32. -26. -23. -24. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 0. -4. -10. -23. -33. -39. -49. -61. -74. -84. -84. -86. -90. -98.-105. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 27.3 92.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.24 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.89 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.45 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.12 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.4% 16.5% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.6% 12.7% 9.3% 10.3% 3.0% 2.1% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 39.9% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.7% 10.2% 7.4% 4.0% 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 33( 55) 0( 55) 0( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 65 4( 66) 0( 66) 0( 66) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 124 120 79 56 36 30 28 28 29 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 120 119 115 74 51 31 25 23 23 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 120 117 116 75 52 32 26 24 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 87 67 61 59 59 60 47 31 46 31 31 31 31 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 81 75 73 73 74 61 45 60 45 45 45 45 IN 6HR 120 124 115 109 106 98 92 90 90 91 78 62 77 62 62 62 62 IN 12HR 120 124 120 111 105 101 95 93 93 94 81 65 80 65 65 65 65