* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 106 104 101 90 81 75 72 68 70 62 52 41 38 35 26 V (KT) LAND 100 106 106 91 66 39 31 28 28 28 33 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 108 110 110 71 40 31 28 28 28 35 35 31 30 30 33 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 17 25 25 20 12 17 23 39 50 68 79 85 69 43 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 1 0 1 3 8 3 3 4 1 -2 -14 -9 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 267 256 268 266 257 292 259 250 254 244 228 216 228 222 237 227 SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 30.6 31.6 31.1 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.7 24.4 21.2 18.0 13.2 13.1 12.0 11.5 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 169 172 172 172 167 168 161 152 107 90 80 71 69 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 152 150 162 172 166 141 145 145 139 98 83 75 69 66 65 64 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.2 -49.6 -50.3 -51.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -48.6 -48.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.9 0.5 1.6 3.6 2.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 10 9 13 5 12 5 9 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 58 57 60 57 57 60 56 45 41 43 46 45 49 57 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 25 26 20 16 12 12 12 19 20 18 15 17 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -5 -27 -73 -68 -48 -21 15 63 98 173 178 177 162 177 185 198 200 MB DIV 40 46 35 37 34 33 17 53 27 46 43 56 69 35 27 18 7 700-850 TADV -6 2 14 25 18 22 7 34 30 19 15 20 -30 -6 -51 -58 3 LAND (KM) 301 221 122 -4 -141 -413 -595 -682 -621 -186 173 171 126 206 676 961 1253 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.6 28.6 29.8 31.0 33.5 35.5 36.8 37.4 37.9 39.6 42.5 46.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.3 93.1 93.5 93.8 93.4 92.1 89.2 84.2 77.9 71.1 63.9 57.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 16 23 26 29 31 29 25 18 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 51 36 42 28 7 6 5 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -5. -8. -12. -17. -23. -29. -37. -43. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -10. -7. -6. -7. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -5. -12. -19. -21. -22. -14. -13. -17. -20. -17. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 4. 1. -10. -19. -25. -28. -32. -30. -38. -48. -59. -62. -65. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 26.5 91.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.93 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.33 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.22 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 33.3 to 3.1 0.87 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.39 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 30.0 to 128.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 17.6% 12.2% 9.4% 5.5% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.8% 23.5% 17.2% 24.9% 11.3% 11.6% 2.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 46.8% 3.3% 1.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 31.0% 14.8% 10.3% 11.9% 5.7% 6.7% 0.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 4( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 106 106 91 66 39 31 28 28 28 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 99 84 59 32 24 21 21 21 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 81 56 29 21 18 18 18 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 65 38 30 27 27 27 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 54 46 43 43 43 48 40 15 15 15 15 15 IN 6HR 100 106 97 91 88 77 69 66 66 66 71 63 38 38 38 38 38 IN 12HR 100 106 106 97 91 87 79 76 76 76 81 73 48 48 48 48 48