* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 98 98 95 87 79 74 71 66 64 57 50 41 31 21 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 95 98 98 83 46 33 29 28 28 31 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 98 102 103 101 49 33 29 28 28 28 34 33 31 31 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 10 18 26 22 22 12 21 27 40 51 70 87 90 83 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 1 2 3 -2 4 7 5 -3 7 -4 -11 -9 -14 -4 SHEAR DIR 303 304 288 261 265 255 276 266 267 248 252 219 224 221 227 220 229 SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.9 30.0 30.6 31.6 30.9 29.8 29.8 28.2 25.4 20.8 19.5 17.0 12.7 12.8 10.9 POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 169 171 172 172 172 167 169 144 113 87 83 77 71 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 164 156 152 153 162 172 161 142 149 130 103 81 77 73 68 68 66 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -49.9 -49.5 -49.5 -49.4 -49.8 -50.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -50.2 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 13 10 11 7 11 5 9 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 59 62 58 58 59 57 60 64 58 45 42 46 48 56 61 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 27 26 22 17 14 12 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 0 -5 -31 -70 -39 -104 16 22 77 151 159 154 150 119 130 167 200 MB DIV 35 51 44 31 26 38 15 39 55 35 46 61 60 80 65 47 47 700-850 TADV 2 -5 2 14 28 0 27 1 44 64 -30 -18 -53 -37 -15 -7 1 LAND (KM) 389 290 225 108 -3 -282 -532 -660 -729 -417 11 157 143 3 274 751 1119 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.7 29.8 32.3 34.6 36.3 37.2 37.7 38.9 40.9 43.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.2 91.2 92.2 92.8 93.4 93.7 92.9 90.8 86.6 80.9 74.8 68.4 62.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 14 20 24 25 27 27 27 24 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 70 52 37 45 34 7 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -7. -6. -5. -6. -10. -15. -23. -31. -40. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 1. -2. -9. -15. -19. -24. -23. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 5. -3. -11. -16. -19. -24. -26. -33. -40. -49. -59. -69. -78. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.6 90.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.87 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.41 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.54 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 444.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.42 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.38 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.5% 18.4% 12.6% 9.6% 5.9% 8.8% 7.7% 0.0% Logistic: 15.6% 24.9% 17.5% 23.1% 11.8% 15.6% 4.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 35.7% 11.0% 4.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.9% 18.1% 11.4% 11.5% 6.0% 8.3% 3.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 21( 30) 0( 30) 0( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 8( 10) 0( 10) 0( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 95 98 98 83 46 33 29 28 28 31 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 92 92 77 40 27 23 22 22 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 86 71 34 21 17 16 16 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 65 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 34 21 17 16 16 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 95 86 80 77 61 48 44 43 43 46 39 32 15 15 15 15 IN 12HR 90 95 98 89 83 79 66 62 61 61 64 57 50 33 33 33 33