* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 67 71 77 81 79 73 68 64 61 67 72 60 51 44 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 67 71 77 81 43 32 28 27 27 32 37 25 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 71 76 83 44 32 28 27 27 32 39 39 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 14 10 5 7 9 22 24 19 16 21 26 43 49 67 73 70 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 6 3 0 2 0 3 0 0 4 3 0 7 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 2 10 34 31 325 279 267 247 275 267 268 262 257 221 225 212 235 SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.5 30.1 31.0 31.7 30.8 30.0 30.0 28.1 25.9 24.7 21.2 16.2 14.2 POT. INT. (KT) 174 173 173 173 173 172 172 172 172 171 173 143 119 109 91 78 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 171 173 168 162 167 155 170 172 158 145 154 131 110 101 85 74 71 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.6 -50.0 -49.3 -49.4 -49.8 -50.4 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.7 0.0 0.7 1.0 2.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 11 10 11 10 12 8 12 6 10 5 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 55 58 59 62 59 56 56 58 62 58 47 45 50 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 22 23 24 24 25 23 18 14 12 10 17 24 22 23 27 850 MB ENV VOR 25 23 44 44 21 -2 -67 -45 -103 -20 -2 69 135 170 189 192 178 200 MB DIV 19 15 33 43 30 30 20 41 7 5 38 36 27 68 54 77 61 700-850 TADV -4 -5 0 -6 -1 1 26 2 29 1 44 59 6 11 15 -48 -43 LAND (KM) 75 213 278 381 390 238 8 -257 -453 -563 -637 -312 139 325 264 122 766 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.9 25.6 27.4 29.7 32.1 34.1 35.5 36.3 36.6 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 86.5 87.9 89.2 90.5 92.4 93.4 93.4 92.2 90.1 86.1 80.3 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 13 20 25 28 31 33 34 32 HEAT CONTENT 124 53 58 57 72 41 40 7 6 5 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. 20. 17. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -12. -20. -30. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. -0. -8. -14. -18. -21. -12. -3. -6. -5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 22. 26. 24. 18. 13. 9. 6. 12. 17. 5. -4. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 22.6 85.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 8.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 25.9 to 2.2 0.71 4.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.50 3.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.52 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.43 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.55 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.85 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.1% 42.1% 27.6% 20.3% 7.5% 27.0% 24.2% 15.9% Logistic: 10.7% 34.7% 25.6% 23.1% 15.9% 26.8% 28.0% 10.2% Bayesian: 2.4% 25.7% 10.7% 1.8% 0.7% 5.3% 10.5% 0.2% Consensus: 8.7% 34.2% 21.3% 15.1% 8.0% 19.7% 20.9% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 62 67 71 77 81 43 32 28 27 27 32 37 25 16 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 58 63 67 73 77 39 28 24 23 23 28 33 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 60 66 70 32 21 17 16 16 21 26 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 55 59 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT