* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARCO AL142020 08/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 65 67 68 64 60 55 55 55 56 56 57 56 57 56 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 65 67 68 48 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 65 67 68 67 48 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 16 12 18 23 23 33 37 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 1 6 5 0 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 254 220 203 220 214 225 213 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.6 30.2 29.9 30.6 31.1 31.6 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 172 172 168 171 171 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 172 170 166 157 149 158 165 170 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 8 9 6 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 60 59 55 52 54 49 51 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 13 14 14 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 11 26 19 2 8 -11 4 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 59 40 70 52 31 23 9 28 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 22 20 6 14 29 13 18 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 191 297 402 334 215 53 -34 -96 -174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.2 27.2 28.8 29.9 30.6 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.2 87.6 88.1 88.5 89.8 91.3 92.9 94.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 56 50 54 51 52 40 21 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 20. 22. 25. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -9. -15. -16. -17. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 4. 0. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 23.2 86.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.35 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.26 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 304.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.58 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 30.0 to 128.0 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.39 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 17.1% 11.2% 8.1% 5.0% 9.0% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 13.8% 7.5% 5.6% 2.8% 4.3% 2.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 10.5% 6.2% 4.6% 2.6% 4.4% 3.6% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142020 MARCO 08/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142020 MARCO 08/23/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 65 67 68 48 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 60 59 61 62 64 65 45 32 26 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 59 60 40 27 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 53 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT