* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/22/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 35 37 41 47 53 61 69 76 83 84 79 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 30 29 30 28 28 39 47 53 60 47 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 30 29 32 28 27 33 38 45 52 48 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 14 8 8 10 6 18 9 14 9 17 16 27 30 30 20 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 1 2 -2 1 -6 -1 -4 -3 -3 2 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 247 254 231 218 273 335 318 355 337 342 308 296 292 282 295 271 253 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.3 30.4 31.0 30.9 30.5 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.7 30.3 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 161 154 158 160 174 173 173 172 171 171 171 171 171 171 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 161 161 154 157 159 174 173 173 163 157 156 159 154 145 145 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -51.0 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 9 10 8 10 6 9 4 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 62 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 61 56 60 59 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 15 16 18 20 21 18 16 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 24 25 41 52 44 -1 -14 -18 -17 -4 -14 -19 -62 -68 -82 -25 2 200 MB DIV 1 8 30 59 61 30 28 41 41 17 24 14 19 31 70 44 53 700-850 TADV -12 -4 -8 -12 -10 -4 -14 -14 -17 -12 2 3 32 -4 13 8 6 LAND (KM) 161 22 62 -34 -67 -13 -30 0 234 416 194 60 -2 -191 -333 -429 -579 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.2 20.4 21.7 23.2 24.7 26.0 27.4 28.7 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 66.1 67.8 69.5 71.3 74.8 78.4 81.8 84.5 86.7 88.5 89.7 90.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 17 17 18 18 16 13 11 10 8 9 8 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 72 80 60 43 41 49 56 87 116 50 59 41 6 6 5 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 31. 36. 41. 42. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 1. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 26. 34. 41. 48. 49. 44. 37. 37. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.4 64.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 25.9 to 2.2 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 59.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.40 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.18 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.11 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.95 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.30 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 13.6% 9.0% 6.2% 3.4% 8.6% 11.4% 24.2% Logistic: 2.0% 8.9% 3.9% 3.2% 2.3% 9.7% 21.0% 45.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.5% 7.8% Consensus: 2.2% 7.7% 4.4% 3.1% 1.9% 6.2% 11.0% 25.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/22/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/22/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 30 29 30 28 28 39 47 53 60 47 34 29 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 34 30 29 30 28 28 39 47 53 60 47 34 29 27 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 27 26 27 25 25 36 44 50 57 44 31 26 24 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 23 23 34 42 48 55 42 29 24 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT