* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/21/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 46 48 49 52 56 58 60 60 63 65 66 65 67 64 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 41 45 37 43 46 48 50 50 53 55 37 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 46 48 46 38 43 41 50 54 57 60 63 41 31 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 19 15 8 9 6 16 13 14 11 18 20 33 32 32 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 4 5 3 -2 0 0 0 -6 0 -5 -2 -5 -5 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 217 226 256 270 266 267 323 335 10 353 351 327 326 316 306 309 312 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.3 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 157 159 160 158 160 174 173 172 171 171 170 170 170 170 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 154 157 159 160 158 159 174 173 168 162 152 150 151 149 145 139 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 8 11 8 12 8 10 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 61 63 64 64 66 66 67 66 61 55 49 51 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 21 14 15 19 24 23 -13 -33 -41 -62 -68 -68 -65 -96 -80 -92 -64 200 MB DIV 27 4 -2 0 18 33 23 18 8 14 9 2 11 24 21 7 -13 700-850 TADV -9 -23 -14 -7 -7 -10 -12 -17 -22 -15 -7 -1 -4 3 3 2 8 LAND (KM) 525 346 168 -12 44 -22 17 6 78 227 292 189 23 -103 -263 -417 -532 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.6 20.8 22.3 23.9 25.5 27.1 28.6 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.9 62.5 64.2 65.9 67.6 71.3 75.0 78.6 81.6 84.0 85.7 86.8 87.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 17 15 12 10 8 8 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 62 71 60 39 43 62 72 52 55 46 35 6 6 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 29. 33. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.1 60.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.53 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.38 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.64 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.38 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 195.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.70 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.88 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.19 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 26.5% 15.7% 9.6% 6.2% 14.2% 22.6% 29.0% Logistic: 4.5% 10.6% 6.8% 4.0% 1.4% 8.1% 16.2% 35.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 14.6% 7.4% 1.1% 0.4% 4.6% 7.2% 14.6% Consensus: 4.7% 17.2% 10.0% 4.9% 2.7% 9.0% 15.3% 26.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/21/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/21/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 41 45 37 43 46 48 50 50 53 55 37 30 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 37 41 33 39 42 44 46 46 49 51 33 26 24 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 32 36 28 34 37 39 41 41 44 46 28 21 19 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 26 32 35 37 39 39 42 44 26 19 17 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT