* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 81 79 76 75 69 63 57 53 48 40 30 19 18 18 18 19 V (KT) LAND 85 81 79 76 75 69 63 57 53 48 40 30 19 18 18 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 85 81 77 74 71 66 59 50 43 35 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 8 7 6 5 8 13 12 20 23 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 5 8 8 5 9 3 6 0 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 226 248 247 218 149 176 143 166 167 189 181 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.6 25.2 24.4 23.7 22.9 22.5 22.2 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 144 140 138 135 129 115 107 99 91 86 82 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.2 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 66 65 60 57 56 56 53 50 50 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 24 22 23 20 20 19 17 17 15 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 70 56 44 42 43 31 21 15 27 22 32 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 88 69 47 46 26 -12 21 15 12 24 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -11 -6 1 -6 -9 -7 -13 -1 2 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 200 148 114 129 140 132 228 238 315 415 497 525 487 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.8 24.9 26.0 27.1 28.3 29.2 30.1 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.3 111.8 113.0 114.6 116.3 118.1 119.7 121.1 122.1 123.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 6 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 8 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -36. -41. -43. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -10. -13. -16. -19. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -10. -16. -22. -28. -32. -37. -45. -55. -66. -66. -67. -67. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.1 109.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.26 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.50 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.55 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 268.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.58 -3.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.56 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 34.4 to 2.3 0.63 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.8 3.0 to 94.0 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 16.3% 15.8% 12.5% 9.3% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.4% 5.3% 4.2% 3.1% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##