* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 95 91 88 86 81 76 69 65 60 52 43 32 33 33 34 35 V (KT) LAND 100 95 91 88 86 81 76 69 65 60 52 43 32 33 33 34 35 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 90 86 82 76 69 61 52 44 37 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 12 9 9 7 5 7 8 10 9 18 23 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 6 6 5 4 10 3 6 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 219 221 245 268 152 196 150 169 165 189 195 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 28.8 28.1 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.4 24.3 24.3 23.4 22.8 22.3 21.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 151 144 139 137 134 127 106 105 96 89 84 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -50.4 -50.7 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.3 -50.1 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 9 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 65 65 58 59 56 58 51 52 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 23 25 25 23 23 20 20 19 17 15 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 66 75 58 35 34 41 26 20 7 15 15 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 84 88 70 40 11 -10 -8 5 -3 10 3 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -10 -7 1 -1 -7 -4 -10 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 195 137 110 113 130 124 209 237 355 428 496 494 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.6 23.4 24.3 25.4 26.5 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.5 109.9 110.3 110.7 111.1 112.1 113.4 115.1 116.9 118.6 120.0 121.3 122.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 10 9 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 15 8 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -6. -13. -22. -29. -36. -43. -48. -53. -55. -58. -61. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -18. -16. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -14. -19. -24. -31. -35. -40. -48. -57. -68. -67. -67. -66. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.6 109.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.15 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.43 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.56 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 -2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.66 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.0 to -2.0 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 13.0% 12.4% 9.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.4% 4.2% 3.2% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##