* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/19/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 96 93 93 89 82 77 72 66 57 49 40 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LAND 100 97 96 93 93 89 82 77 72 66 57 49 40 39 39 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 100 96 93 90 86 79 73 65 55 47 38 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 8 7 9 5 5 6 14 11 18 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 3 7 5 9 4 7 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 226 229 238 258 250 166 185 141 173 167 192 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 28.8 28.0 27.7 27.3 26.7 25.7 24.3 23.9 23.1 22.6 22.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 151 143 139 135 130 120 105 101 93 87 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 6 7 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 68 64 60 55 56 54 53 49 48 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 23 25 25 23 21 20 19 17 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 68 71 56 42 49 36 23 8 24 13 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 66 80 92 66 39 11 -4 11 -3 20 14 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -4 -4 -7 -1 -4 -6 -7 -11 -2 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 343 270 200 150 121 148 137 212 230 290 397 475 529 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 22.9 23.7 24.7 25.8 27.0 28.1 29.1 30.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 109.6 110.0 110.4 110.8 111.8 112.9 114.4 116.0 117.8 119.3 120.8 122.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 9 10 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 20 15 7 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -5. -12. -20. -28. -34. -40. -46. -50. -52. -54. -57. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -7. -7. -11. -18. -23. -28. -34. -43. -51. -60. -61. -61. -61. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 19.9 109.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.2 30.0 to 135.0 0.18 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.17 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.48 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.61 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.53 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.32 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 34.4 to 2.3 0.81 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.30 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 16.3% 14.9% 11.5% 9.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.5% 5.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/19/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##