* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENIEVE EP122020 08/18/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 124 124 122 114 105 96 85 74 64 51 40 29 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 123 124 124 122 114 105 96 85 74 64 51 40 29 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 122 124 122 117 106 98 88 74 59 46 36 28 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 5 7 4 5 13 18 19 21 17 22 22 24 29 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -3 -3 -3 -1 1 4 6 9 5 10 5 5 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 225 218 167 221 236 245 218 190 188 181 187 184 200 203 212 197 198 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 26.5 24.6 24.1 22.7 21.9 21.3 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 145 140 137 135 128 108 103 89 81 74 64 62 61 59 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.8 -51.1 -50.9 -50.2 -50.3 -49.8 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 7 5 6 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 73 70 71 63 58 53 59 56 56 52 51 43 38 30 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 22 26 27 27 26 27 25 23 22 19 17 15 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 39 48 55 63 63 74 57 51 55 45 52 31 49 55 42 43 11 200 MB DIV 94 53 68 68 67 82 20 -2 7 3 8 15 18 -5 26 7 35 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -5 -1 -2 0 2 2 1 -1 2 -1 5 LAND (KM) 365 405 367 303 259 244 224 240 298 311 419 516 589 562 583 597 626 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 19.0 19.6 20.3 20.9 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 26.1 27.2 28.4 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.2 110.1 110.7 111.3 112.2 113.3 114.5 116.0 117.5 119.2 120.9 122.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 8 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 11 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 19 CX,CY: -14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -11. -20. -29. -39. -47. -55. -61. -67. -72. -79. -86. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 8. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -3. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -2. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 9. 9. 7. -1. -10. -19. -30. -41. -51. -64. -75. -86. -96.-107.-117. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 18.3 108.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENIEVE 08/18/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.8 30.0 to 135.0 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.83 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.76 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.57 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.4 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 -3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.08 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.11 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.7% 24.9% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.7% 5.9% 5.4% 3.2% 2.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.1% 10.3% 7.6% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENIEVE 08/18/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##