* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/17/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 54 62 71 81 97 105 109 110 101 91 80 67 60 52 43 34 V (KT) LAND 45 54 62 71 81 97 105 109 110 101 91 80 67 60 52 43 34 V (KT) LGEM 45 53 60 67 76 94 110 119 115 100 83 66 52 42 34 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 7 3 4 2 8 2 4 7 12 16 17 12 13 16 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 5 2 -2 -6 -3 -4 0 2 1 4 2 9 0 8 SHEAR DIR 54 10 350 33 15 111 140 55 88 107 149 161 192 210 207 201 206 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.5 29.8 29.1 28.7 27.5 25.8 24.8 24.4 23.2 22.4 21.7 21.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 164 166 166 168 172 164 156 152 139 121 111 107 94 86 78 78 76 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.3 -51.2 -50.4 -50.5 -49.9 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 6 8 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 82 81 79 80 76 77 70 63 56 55 48 49 46 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 23 25 27 31 30 29 27 24 24 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 9 16 26 35 58 59 83 76 76 84 59 65 40 28 0 200 MB DIV 106 84 73 96 135 121 131 86 86 34 9 6 -5 7 2 5 6 700-850 TADV -1 -11 -14 -12 -11 -7 0 -1 -3 -11 -1 0 5 3 7 12 15 LAND (KM) 466 470 476 464 462 470 523 443 401 410 434 516 575 686 839 936 969 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.7 16.1 17.6 19.1 20.4 21.6 22.7 23.8 24.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.6 101.1 102.6 104.1 105.5 107.8 109.7 111.3 112.8 114.3 115.9 117.8 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 14 13 11 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 46 42 39 35 28 20 12 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 77.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 16. 14. 11. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 18. 16. 13. 7. 7. 4. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 22. 13. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 26. 36. 52. 60. 64. 65. 56. 46. 35. 22. 15. 7. -2. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.1 99.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.88 23.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.58 15.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.82 17.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.8 -30.0 to 145.0 0.74 15.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.87 -16.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 11.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.86 12.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.38 3.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.0 to -2.0 0.60 1.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 100% is 8.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 89% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 14.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 100% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 81% is 17.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.7% 100.0% 89.2% 82.0% 61.4% 100.0% 100.0% 81.1% Logistic: 52.4% 86.7% 78.9% 72.1% 21.8% 88.9% 72.4% 41.5% Bayesian: 46.7% 80.2% 83.2% 68.7% 10.5% 69.6% 35.3% 19.7% Consensus: 50.6% 89.0% 83.8% 74.3% 31.2% 86.2% 69.2% 47.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##