* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 28 30 29 31 33 36 39 39 43 42 44 45 45 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 28 28 30 29 31 33 36 39 39 43 42 44 45 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 35 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 28 25 21 21 19 18 18 18 17 11 5 4 2 9 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -4 -5 -7 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 1 2 1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 51 54 57 54 57 57 65 72 77 80 78 83 65 138 111 128 98 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 142 141 140 139 138 138 137 137 136 136 137 138 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 53 54 54 54 59 59 57 52 51 51 50 48 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 15 14 3 -12 -13 -33 -35 -21 -3 20 35 45 58 78 86 90 80 200 MB DIV -9 -1 -2 -8 -17 -10 -1 3 30 31 -21 -39 2 -28 -17 3 -2 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2350 2333 2318 2295 2272 2234 2200 2163 2143 2101 2089 2087 2091 2121 2162 2212 2252 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 13.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.8 133.9 134.0 134.2 134.3 134.6 134.9 135.3 135.6 136.1 136.3 136.4 136.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 0 1 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 11 12 13 12 11 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -9. -7. -4. -3. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 10. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. -0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 13. 12. 14. 15. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.1 133.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.6 30.0 to 135.0 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 162.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 34.4 to 2.3 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.09 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.0 to -2.0 0.68 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##