* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSEPHINE AL112020 08/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 28 30 34 37 42 47 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 28 30 34 37 42 47 48 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 33 32 29 26 23 20 19 20 22 25 29 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 17 22 23 23 34 31 32 16 12 5 1 11 15 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 7 5 2 2 2 2 3 1 -5 -1 -4 -1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 256 266 267 257 264 265 272 296 310 12 176 155 212 221 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 30.0 29.5 29.5 29.4 28.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 144 147 147 151 152 153 156 163 169 160 160 159 145 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 141 142 139 141 140 142 140 137 137 141 147 138 136 133 120 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 49 51 52 51 55 54 57 60 60 62 60 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 -6 -17 -27 -44 -71 -63 -86 -66 -65 -63 -50 -58 -19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 43 45 37 37 22 3 20 2 16 39 0 38 18 33 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 6 9 6 -4 2 0 4 7 2 8 -2 6 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 934 914 802 677 568 428 465 611 722 871 1053 1058 1057 1006 893 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 18.0 18.6 19.3 20.0 21.2 22.6 24.2 25.7 27.2 28.8 30.6 32.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.5 56.8 58.1 59.4 60.6 63.0 65.1 66.5 67.2 67.4 67.0 66.1 65.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 13 11 9 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 51 54 45 38 54 55 35 31 38 33 24 24 29 24 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -5. -1. 2. 7. 12. 13. 15. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.3 55.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 25.9 to 2.2 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.52 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.64 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.6 95.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 12.8% 8.4% 6.2% 3.1% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 5.2% 3.7% 4.0% 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.1% 4.1% 3.4% 1.4% 3.0% 0.4% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 JOSEPHINE 08/14/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 33 32 30 28 28 30 34 37 42 47 48 50 51 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 32 31 29 27 27 29 33 36 41 46 47 49 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 30 29 27 25 25 27 31 34 39 44 45 47 48 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 23 21 19 19 21 25 28 33 38 39 41 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT