* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/12/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 45 47 48 50 51 53 54 57 61 63 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 45 47 48 50 51 53 54 57 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 37 36 35 33 32 32 34 37 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 2 3 3 7 8 22 19 26 16 20 11 16 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 2 7 4 3 4 0 1 -1 0 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 115 126 114 313 321 287 276 272 270 263 246 238 202 216 160 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 138 136 136 141 147 146 148 151 152 152 155 160 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 137 135 135 138 144 142 142 144 142 139 140 143 140 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 55 53 53 55 55 56 56 55 54 54 52 51 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 8 7 7 6 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 36 26 21 21 21 14 -15 -25 -39 -57 -61 -79 -85 -62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -21 -33 -39 -22 15 52 39 39 34 21 -7 12 -9 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 2 5 8 11 4 10 4 7 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1169 1114 1062 1041 1031 1063 915 855 655 437 366 468 587 732 903 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.7 19.9 21.2 22.7 24.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.2 47.4 48.6 49.8 52.2 54.7 57.1 59.5 61.9 64.0 65.7 67.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 29 31 21 18 29 37 48 49 39 65 50 35 32 30 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. -19. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. 21. 23. 24. 27. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 45.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.87 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.30 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.54 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 167.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.74 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.77 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.8 -28.0 to 171.0 0.02 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.4% 10.0% 7.2% 4.0% 8.9% 12.2% 16.9% Logistic: 2.3% 8.1% 5.2% 1.2% 0.5% 3.9% 7.5% 4.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.8% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 9.4% 5.5% 2.8% 1.5% 4.5% 6.8% 7.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 33 37 43 45 47 48 50 51 53 54 57 61 63 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 32 36 42 44 46 47 49 50 52 53 56 60 62 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 32 38 40 42 43 45 46 48 49 52 56 58 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 33 35 36 38 39 41 42 45 49 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT