* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112020 08/12/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 49 51 51 51 52 55 57 60 64 66 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 49 51 51 51 52 55 57 60 64 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 39 38 37 36 35 35 38 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 10 3 6 9 10 21 18 27 17 19 1 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 -1 0 0 3 3 4 5 3 3 -2 2 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 109 105 121 140 155 312 294 267 273 271 263 263 265 158 176 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 135 138 136 138 136 141 147 147 148 151 152 152 155 160 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 137 136 137 135 139 144 142 142 144 142 140 140 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 60 58 55 52 55 56 57 58 56 55 55 52 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 9 8 7 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 33 35 36 30 23 23 15 -11 -24 -39 -60 -64 -83 -80 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -6 -11 -3 -19 -25 7 37 64 34 17 6 -13 -6 -2 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 2 8 11 6 -3 4 -3 1 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1329 1255 1191 1133 1077 1036 1063 923 870 667 456 384 501 645 789 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 12.9 13.2 14.0 15.1 16.3 17.6 18.9 20.1 21.4 23.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.5 44.8 46.0 47.3 49.7 52.2 54.6 57.0 59.4 61.8 64.0 65.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 23 27 31 18 29 37 49 51 39 69 44 30 33 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -18. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 21. 21. 21. 22. 25. 27. 30. 34. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.1 42.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 25.9 to 2.2 0.68 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 33.3 to 3.1 0.45 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.57 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.76 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.11 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.7% 10.0% 7.1% 4.0% 8.7% 11.1% 16.4% Logistic: 4.2% 17.8% 10.8% 3.9% 2.6% 12.6% 18.1% 16.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 19.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.9% Consensus: 3.2% 17.2% 7.8% 3.7% 2.2% 7.6% 10.0% 11.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112020 ELEVEN 08/12/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 38 43 49 51 51 51 52 55 57 60 64 66 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 36 41 47 49 49 49 50 53 55 58 62 64 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 32 37 43 45 45 45 46 49 51 54 58 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 30 36 38 38 38 39 42 44 47 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT