* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 72 68 58 46 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 72 68 58 46 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 75 71 66 54 42 33 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 7 11 9 11 9 15 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 295 255 202 209 228 189 206 205 210 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.9 25.8 25.2 25.0 23.9 23.0 22.5 22.3 21.9 21.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 122 116 113 101 91 85 83 79 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 57 55 51 45 36 30 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 17 14 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 15 15 2 -3 -19 -1 12 3 -2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -3 -16 -7 5 9 -1 10 3 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 1 10 9 7 4 10 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 372 432 456 489 548 634 677 742 824 929 1000 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.3 25.8 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.6 114.8 115.9 117.0 118.9 120.3 121.6 122.8 124.1 125.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 11 8 7 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -27. -32. -36. -39. -42. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -17. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -18. -22. -24. -23. -21. -19. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -7. -17. -29. -41. -51. -60. -69. -72. -74. -76. -77. -79. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.4 112.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.19 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.50 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 17.2 to 1.6 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.72 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 34.4 to 2.3 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.7% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 1.4% 1.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 6.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##