* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 62 59 56 54 52 57 57 55 45 33 23 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 62 59 56 54 52 57 43 40 31 20 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 61 60 58 54 50 48 49 39 39 35 31 30 29 31 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 25 25 23 26 20 20 14 21 40 49 57 59 59 47 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 5 4 2 2 -1 4 2 7 5 2 -1 -4 -6 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 261 251 259 269 268 270 271 266 233 198 196 214 220 236 252 279 288 SST (C) 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.8 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 26.5 23.5 15.5 20.8 14.2 11.0 14.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 158 161 166 164 165 153 156 162 164 122 98 72 85 72 69 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 147 148 151 146 144 132 135 140 143 107 87 69 77 69 68 69 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.7 -50.8 -51.4 -52.1 -53.0 -54.0 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 8 10 7 9 3 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 52 54 53 51 51 51 50 52 59 56 55 47 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 18 16 16 15 14 15 14 14 11 8 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -24 -43 -55 -47 -64 -31 -56 -49 -65 -15 -29 -3 -26 -68 -59 -70 200 MB DIV 31 36 9 -10 14 -2 34 35 45 53 53 28 34 26 17 8 -4 700-850 TADV 32 22 6 12 15 6 7 15 31 -3 34 -17 28 1 21 30 42 LAND (KM) 140 192 220 248 150 49 66 156 62 -23 56 12 64 15 -4 273 801 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.1 23.9 24.8 25.6 27.0 28.5 30.5 32.8 35.3 38.2 41.5 44.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.2 77.2 77.9 78.7 79.6 80.0 79.8 78.8 77.1 74.5 70.9 66.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 8 9 11 13 16 20 21 19 20 23 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 38 48 48 53 45 42 34 41 29 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -4. -8. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -10. -15. -20. -27. -33. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -7. -10. -11. -17. -21. -23. -22. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -8. -8. -10. -20. -32. -42. -50. -57. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 22.2 75.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 25.9 to 2.2 0.12 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.63 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.93 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.14 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 406.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.53 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 12.6% 8.7% 7.4% 4.6% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.5% 1.5% 2.7% 1.4% 2.9% 1.6% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.1% 3.4% 3.3% 2.0% 3.4% 0.5% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/31/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 62 62 59 56 54 52 57 43 40 31 20 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 62 62 59 56 54 52 57 43 40 31 20 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 58 55 53 51 56 42 39 30 19 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 49 47 45 50 36 33 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT