* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/30/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 55 54 55 54 51 49 48 50 50 52 51 49 44 42 37 V (KT) LAND 50 45 39 42 43 41 38 36 35 38 37 39 39 37 31 29 24 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 39 42 42 41 39 36 36 36 37 39 43 44 43 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 11 16 22 21 16 20 19 24 18 23 28 39 49 52 50 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 8 6 6 7 5 3 2 3 0 2 -7 -2 2 2 5 SHEAR DIR 286 242 237 256 273 232 252 246 276 242 249 234 238 232 230 241 252 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.3 29.2 30.1 28.4 26.7 20.5 19.2 17.5 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 149 152 155 158 159 164 157 155 174 146 125 85 81 77 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 149 145 147 149 147 144 145 137 135 155 129 110 78 75 72 68 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -49.7 -50.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 8 10 5 4 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 57 55 53 52 52 51 55 54 53 51 53 56 53 52 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 17 18 16 15 13 12 12 10 10 11 13 14 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 41 40 25 -2 -12 -36 -40 -48 -50 -30 -40 -35 -40 -36 8 56 48 200 MB DIV 41 41 33 25 5 16 -2 13 -13 18 37 35 34 10 10 11 10 700-850 TADV 12 21 15 32 31 7 2 1 2 4 0 16 -7 -15 -16 -57 19 LAND (KM) 49 -36 -22 67 122 186 216 79 76 154 118 19 243 219 199 288 235 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.7 19.6 20.5 21.4 23.1 24.7 26.4 28.2 30.1 32.5 35.5 38.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.9 71.3 72.6 74.0 76.4 78.3 79.3 79.8 79.7 78.3 75.6 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 13 11 9 10 11 16 19 21 22 22 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 77 45 37 42 37 47 48 40 34 36 36 16 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 16 CX,CY: -11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 19. 16. 13. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -17. -23. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -18. -19. -18. -15. -13. -10. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -2. 0. -0. 2. 1. -1. -6. -8. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.7 68.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.63 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.0 30.0 to 128.0 0.70 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 17.7% 11.5% 8.6% 5.4% 9.9% 11.8% 10.2% Logistic: 5.0% 7.4% 4.5% 4.2% 2.3% 5.9% 4.2% 3.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 3.4% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 9.5% 5.9% 4.4% 2.6% 5.6% 5.8% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 45 39 42 43 41 38 36 35 38 37 39 39 37 31 29 24 18HR AGO 50 49 43 46 47 45 42 40 39 42 41 43 43 41 35 33 28 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 50 48 45 43 42 45 44 46 46 44 38 36 31 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 39 36 34 33 36 35 37 37 35 29 27 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT