* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAIAS AL092020 07/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 57 59 59 60 60 63 68 72 74 76 72 65 53 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 42 40 40 42 41 32 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 51 53 42 41 41 41 42 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 9 5 10 19 11 16 17 16 20 21 29 34 43 48 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 8 9 4 8 6 5 5 2 4 3 -2 -1 -7 -9 SHEAR DIR 39 276 307 293 229 271 217 240 222 243 211 228 220 224 228 235 245 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.6 29.3 29.5 29.1 30.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.5 30.2 28.8 29.5 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 156 152 164 159 161 154 171 165 169 171 171 173 151 163 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 156 152 163 153 151 141 166 145 145 146 154 151 130 140 90 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -51.7 -52.3 -53.3 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 9 10 9 11 7 11 5 4 700-500 MB RH 62 58 55 52 49 47 46 47 49 48 48 47 49 52 57 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 20 21 20 17 18 16 17 19 21 22 24 23 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 90 73 52 50 48 24 36 0 -18 -16 11 10 -13 -8 15 -20 -41 200 MB DIV 93 89 63 44 37 -13 3 0 -1 7 29 21 13 33 24 36 33 700-850 TADV 5 2 4 13 17 15 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 -5 22 4 25 LAND (KM) 250 180 116 21 -19 -22 3 75 7 -37 -51 -85 -39 -88 -160 -97 -124 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.5 17.3 18.1 18.9 20.5 21.9 23.4 25.1 26.7 28.2 29.7 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.8 69.4 70.9 72.4 75.3 77.7 79.6 80.9 81.6 82.0 82.2 81.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 16 16 15 12 11 9 8 8 8 10 13 16 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 49 72 84 48 52 41 46 63 50 35 14 8 32 7 3 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -4. -10. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 27. 20. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 66.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 25.9 to 2.2 0.83 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.41 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.46 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.64 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.65 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.82 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 42.6% 28.4% 13.0% 6.9% 18.9% 25.8% 29.8% Logistic: 7.9% 18.5% 14.1% 4.3% 1.1% 2.5% 3.2% 4.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 5.1% 6.6% 0.7% 0.2% 1.6% 3.0% 0.9% Consensus: 6.8% 22.1% 16.4% 6.0% 2.8% 7.6% 10.7% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 ISAIAS 07/30/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 54 42 40 40 42 41 32 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 18HR AGO 45 44 47 50 38 36 36 38 37 28 25 23 23 23 23 24 25 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 32 30 30 32 31 22 19 17 17 17 17 18 19 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 23 21 21 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT