* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092020 07/29/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 47 50 51 51 48 47 45 46 45 46 44 44 41 39 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 47 37 34 37 35 33 32 33 32 32 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 44 36 37 34 32 30 29 30 31 31 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 9 13 11 26 19 21 17 23 19 31 33 38 37 42 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 9 8 8 5 4 5 0 5 0 3 -1 -3 -1 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 191 240 272 267 247 255 250 242 242 248 245 237 232 235 215 220 209 SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.1 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.2 30.8 30.8 30.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 156 153 156 157 160 153 165 163 161 165 170 170 171 171 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 155 156 153 155 152 151 140 148 144 139 141 147 156 155 148 118 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 10 10 8 10 8 10 6 9 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 53 49 46 49 51 50 49 52 51 52 51 52 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 20 19 17 14 12 11 10 9 9 6 5 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 87 73 57 56 51 27 -3 -9 -24 -49 -11 -13 19 20 30 23 41 200 MB DIV 69 78 68 52 64 14 -6 -8 15 19 46 14 41 21 62 39 46 700-850 TADV 3 2 -2 14 26 5 8 -9 2 -4 0 0 7 1 9 1 10 LAND (KM) 236 123 74 5 -77 -6 19 49 96 81 73 69 16 -132 -170 -195 -280 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.0 20.5 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.8 28.2 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.9 66.6 68.4 70.0 71.7 74.8 77.4 79.5 81.1 82.3 83.1 83.5 83.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 17 17 15 13 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 49 86 85 52 43 40 42 68 46 50 47 43 47 6 6 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 22 CX,CY: -20/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -14. -18. -19. -22. -23. -26. -26. -29. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 8. 7. 5. 6. 5. 6. 4. 4. 1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.1 64.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 25.9 to 2.2 0.74 3.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 63.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.43 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 33.3 to 3.1 0.74 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.42 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.53 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.66 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.86 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 36.5% 22.8% 10.0% 6.9% 12.9% 13.1% 14.5% Logistic: 12.6% 28.5% 23.4% 11.0% 4.0% 5.6% 4.5% 2.6% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.0% 4.6% 1.2% 0.2% 1.3% 2.2% 0.4% Consensus: 8.4% 23.0% 17.0% 7.4% 3.7% 6.6% 6.6% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092020 NINE 07/29/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092020 NINE 07/29/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 47 37 34 37 35 33 32 33 32 32 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 34 31 34 32 30 29 30 29 29 25 24 24 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 29 26 29 27 25 24 25 24 24 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 20 17 20 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT