* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/29/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 40 43 47 48 51 52 51 51 51 51 49 49 47 46 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 40 43 47 48 51 52 51 51 51 51 49 49 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 36 35 36 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 25 19 17 17 14 9 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 193 205 213 210 202 200 158 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 145 146 147 150 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 40 42 43 49 49 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 6 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -58 -65 -72 -72 -73 -76 -86 -81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 9 -3 2 5 -10 7 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 0 0 4 4 1 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1040 1239 1439 1637 1835 2244 2645 2771 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.4 25.6 26.4 27.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 170.0 172.0 173.9 175.9 177.8 181.8 185.7 189.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 16 12 10 13 11 13 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 8. 11. 12. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.5 170.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/29/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.25 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 17.2 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -30.0 to 145.0 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.8 742.0 to -74.0 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 3.0 to 94.0 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.0 to -2.0 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/29/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##